Is Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) a buy in 2026?

Where VALE is headed

An EV/EBITDA of 2.0x for the world's second-largest iron ore producer — a company generating over $10 billion in annual free cash flow — is the kind of number that makes you double-check the data. It's real. Vale today trades as if iron ore is about to collapse, as if its nickel and copper assets are worth nothing, and as if the Brumadinho and Mariana liabilities will consume every dollar of future earnings. None of those things are true simultaneously. By late 2027, Vale is likely running a leaner, more focused iron ore operation with S11D at fuller capacity, its base metals division restructured under a clearer ownership framework, and its Mariana settlement payments — while substantial — on a defined schedule that the market can finally model rather than fear. The forward P/E of 8x implies earnings roughly tripling off the trailing base, which sounds dramatic until you realize the trailing P/E of 24.6x is distorted by ~$5 billion in one-time charges related to dam settlements and asset impairments. Normalize for those, and Vale's iron ore business alone justifies a price well above where it trades.