Is TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ:TMC) a buy in 2026?
Hold. TMC the metals company Inc. is a wait-and-watch at today's price, not a fresh buy.
A binary regulatory bet on deep-sea mining with $2.9B priced in before a single dollar of commercial revenue.
Where TMC is headed
By mid-to-late 2027, TMC will either be the world's first company actively harvesting polymetallic nodules at commercial scale from the Clarion Clipperton Zone, or it will still be mired in regulatory limbo with the International Seabed Authority (ISA) failing to finalize a mining code. The most likely scenario sits somewhere between: TMC secures a conditional exploitation license, begins pilot-scale collection operations, and signs offtake agreements for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese — but full commercial revenue remains 2-3 years away. The company will likely need to raise additional capital (diluting shareholders) to fund its CAPEX-intensive ramp.
Read the full Compass Direction on TMC
The complete destination call, the overlooked angle, milestones, and bull, base, and bear price scenarios (around $5.40).
See the full TMC analysisGet calls like this, free
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Frequently asked questions
Is TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ:TMC) a buy in 2026?
Hold. TMC the metals company Inc. is a wait-and-watch at today's price, not a fresh buy. A binary regulatory bet on deep-sea mining with $2.9B priced in before a single dollar of commercial revenue.
What is TMC's Compass Score?
TMC the metals company Inc. scores 21/100 on Alexandria's Compass, placing it in the "Headwinds" tier. Scores blend eight factors and update weekly.
What is the price target for TMC?
Alexandria's full Compass Direction includes bull, base, and bear price scenarios with the valuation math behind each. Read the full breakdown on the TMC page.
Compass verdicts are AI-generated, forward-looking editorial research from publicly available data, not investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security. Scores and verdicts update as the data changes.