Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) a buy in 2026?
Yes, on balance. The Compass leans toward accumulating Annaly Capital Management, Inc. at current levels.
A leveraged bet on the Fed easing cycle finally normalizing the agency MBS spread, with a 13% dividend paid while you wait.
Where NLY is headed
Annaly is, at its core, a giant levered spread trade dressed up as a REIT. It borrows short via repo, buys agency MBS with an implicit government guarantee, hedges the duration with swaps, and pockets the spread roughly 6-7x levered. For most of 2022-2024 that trade was broken because the curve was inverted and MBS spreads to Treasuries blew out to levels not seen outside the 2008 crisis. By mid-2026 that picture has changed materially. The Fed has cut roughly 175bps from the 2024 peak, the curve has steepened, and the front end of repo finally sits below the coupon on the MBS book. That is the entire game for a mortgage REIT, and Annaly is now on the right side of it.
Read the full Compass Direction on NLY
The complete destination call, the overlooked angle, milestones, and bull, base, and bear price scenarios (around $21.56).
See the full NLY analysisGet calls like this, free
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Frequently asked questions
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY) a buy in 2026?
Yes, on balance. The Compass leans toward accumulating Annaly Capital Management, Inc. at current levels. A leveraged bet on the Fed easing cycle finally normalizing the agency MBS spread, with a 13% dividend paid while you wait.
What is NLY's Compass Score?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. scores 75/100 on Alexandria's Compass, placing it in the "Favorable" tier. Scores blend eight factors and update weekly.
What is the price target for NLY?
Alexandria's full Compass Direction includes bull, base, and bear price scenarios with the valuation math behind each. Read the full breakdown on the NLY page.
Compass verdicts are AI-generated, forward-looking editorial research from publicly available data, not investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security. Scores and verdicts update as the data changes.